1. There was zero real euphoria.

The Cycle Of Market Emotions

Every true cycle top in 2013, 2017, and 2021 was characterized by mania:

Every real crypto top in the past felt insane.

Retail mania everywhere.

Everyone suddenly becomes a trader.

Memecoins doing 100x for no reason.

Your cousin’s barber is asking about Bitcoin.

None of this happened yet.

You can’t have a cycle top without mania.
It’s like trying to have a thunderstorm without clouds.

2. The cycle timing doesn’t match an end-of-cycle top

???? 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1

Bitcoin historically peaks 12–18 months after the halving.
The last halving was in 2024.

Which puts the expected peak somewhere between:

???? 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1

We are inside that window right now.
Ending the bull market this early would be historically extremely unusual.

3. Monthly RSI and structure never reached “cycle top” levels

cycle top

Previous cycle peaks saw RSI levels of 85–95 on the monthly chart.
Right now the global crypto market RSI peaked around ~76.

That’s mid-cycle, not end-cycle.

4. Global liquidity is still expanding

U.S. alone is injecting ~$1 trillion every 3 months.

U.S. alone is injecting ~$1 trillion every 3 months.
Other countries are also net-liquidity positive.

The TOTAL crypto market cap right now is about $2.96 trillion.
And the U.S. alone basically prints that amount in a single year.

Crypto is highly liquidity-sensitive.
We typically see the impact of liquidity with a 6–12 month delay.

That delay points directly toward late 2025 to early 2026 bullish continuation.

???? So where do I stand?

My current view:
We are NOT at the top.
This is a mid-cycle shakeout that looks scary but structurally healthy.

Not financial advice — just my personal opinion.